“In December, there was a real liquidity crisis in the markets”

So what is their assessment expected later this year in the stock market?

De Croza: “In December, even before the falls, we thought an average rise of about 6% was expected, and now, following the sharp rises since the beginning of the year, the indices actually did almost all the way and actually reached the target, , Or a slight drop: In December, there was a real liquidity shortage in the markets – mainly because some of the banks wanted to clean up their balance sheets – which created a buying opportunity in bonds and stocks. After that, it calmed down, and as soon as the liquidity returned in January, the markets returned to the market. “

Could there be another similar event by the end of the year?

Farid: “Of course, it can happen again, but it’s hard to know what will lead to it, and it’s hard to know which direction it will come from.” Since 2008, there has been a lot of liquidity flowing into the markets. And enter the bond market in a state of liquidity distress. We do not believe that the volatility has disappeared – it will remain with us in the coming year in currencies, both in bonds and in shares. “

De Croza: “We do not see endogenous reasons for the collapse, but there is the end-of-the-mill scenario that could lead to a fall, such as a sharp and sudden increase in the price of oil, and the chances of this happening are low, but there could suddenly be a disruption of oil supply routes or a war in the Persian Gulf At a price and a sharp rise in the rate of inflation, but at the same time we estimate that the price of Brent oil will be about $ 70 a barrel by the end of the year. “

There is a sense that the world is constantly creating new wealth and money in very large amounts, both in companies and in private individuals. Capitalism works in the world. Do you feel it?


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